Luton

[Kristoff]

18 games is a perfect time to start thinking we must win games imo. Before you know it we could be sitting with 10 games to go needing to win half of them.

I thought it has looked more of a 4141 the last few games with San Jose sitting in. He wants a ball player there, but I’d much rather the energy of Sunjic to clear up.

[Davebcfc]

Think the trouble is he can't replace Dean as Roberts is suspended and can't see him having 2 left sided with jcs and friend so would keep same back 4 and just bring in harper for sunjic as gardener done OK and will benefit from a run in the team and same front 3

[Alexjames]

46 games is a better time to start thinking we must win games, but I get your drift!

7 games in 3 weeks, then it eases off to 11 in the last 9 weeks.

12 points from those 7 puts us on 40 with 11 to play, which would take some pressure off.

For me a win on Sat would be as much about breaking the psychological barrier around winning at home as it would be about the 3 points themselves. Both are equally important.

3 nil!

[Tam]

You'd have to think that the next three games (maybe even the next one) is pivotal as to whether Karanka stays or goes. At the moment, we're in touch with the pack (as we should be, at the very least) but if we fail to win on Saturday, and others pick up points, there's surely got to be some thoughts of replacing him.

Probably like most of us, I'm sick of managerial changes at Blues, but relegation would flatten us, I'm sure. With the ability of the squad as a whole, it will be pretty unforgivable if we end up in the bottom three.

[Kristoff]

You'd have to think that the next three games (maybe even the next one) is pivotal as to whether Karanka stays or goes. At the moment, we're in touch with the pack (as we should be, at the very least) but if we fail to win on Saturday, and others pick up points, there's surely got to be some thoughts of replacing him.

Probably like most of us, I'm sick of managerial changes at Blues, but relegation would flatten us, I'm sure. With the ability of the squad as a whole, it will be pretty unforgivable if we end up in the bottom three.

Totally agree with this. If we continue to struggle to get points on the board and the teams around us look lively and pick up points, soon enough we’ll be too far behind. The next game, for me, is the biggest of the next 3 as it’s realistically the team we should be beating. A draw isn’t enough for me, unless it’s a totally inspired performance.

[willvbcfc]

We have to win. I think if we lose Karankas role will be untenable.

The fans see this game as a "must win", but I'm pretty sure Karanka will be seeing it as a "must not lose". Such negativity is half of the problem in my opinion.

In essense, 4-2-3-1 is a very similar formation to 4-3-3. But not the way AK sets it up.

Rather than a system which too often reverts to a 5-4-1 in and out of possession, I'd like to see us deploy a proper attacking 4-3-3. Why not go for it at home to Luton?

No sitting San José. Instead, Sunjic, Gardner & Harper, all on the front foot in the midfield, with the license to go press and affect the game. Get our most athletic bodies in there. It's why Kief came back with a vengeance. He injected a bit of energy.

From the front three of Bela, Hogan and Sanchez, give us some fluidity and rotation. Why not switch flanks from time to time and give defenders something different to think about? Perhaps get a few quality crosses in from the byline for a change.

However, even with nothing to lose from being positive, AK will of course revert to type. Expect to see:

- 5-4-1, with no more than three accurate passes before the ball hits the side hoardings
- After 50 minutes, every pass becomes an aimless long ball up toward Scotty Hogan
- No subs unless somebody fancies getting sent off or dies
- An 87th minute Luton winner following a Dean & Pedersen cock up

Hope I'm wrong!

[Kristoff]

Can’t disagree with much of what you’ve said there. Would be happy to see a 433 with a pressing midfield. I actually think a 4231 generally allows more attacking freedom when done right, but playing MSJ as one of the 2, as with Clayton, means the other midfielder has to cover twice as much ground. I think of the main requirements from those 2 is energy, so if we were to stick, I’d go with Sunjic and Harper.

Totally agree about the wide players too. We’ve not even seen Karanka experiment with switching the wingers over, which is something that can cause problems down to Sunday league level, let alone when you’ve got 2 wingers who are capable of causing major problems in the Championship.

[Oz]

It should be said, pragmatism or letting your foot off the handbreak. A more attacking 433 or a more defensive minded 451. That shouldn’t really matter, our first 11 and 25 man squad is better than Luton Towns. We have a much higher wage budget and have spent a lot more on transfers.

On Saturday afternoon at 2pm, we will see the team sheets and 99% of fans will rather have our team than there’s.

It’s up to those players to prove there worth. For far too long they have failed to live up to any kind of expectation and now the onus is on them to take the game by the scruff of the neck and get the job done.

[Alexjames]

The fans see this game as a "must win", but I'm pretty sure Karanka will be seeing it as a "must not lose". Such negativity is half of the problem in my opinion.

In essense, 4-2-3-1 is a very similar formation to 4-3-3. But not the way AK sets it up.

Rather than a system which too often reverts to a 5-4-1 in and out of possession, I'd like to see us deploy a proper attacking 4-3-3. Why not go for it at home to Luton?

No sitting San José. Instead, Sunjic, Gardner & Harper, all on the front foot in the midfield, with the license to go press and affect the game. Get our most athletic bodies in there. It's why Kief came back with a vengeance. He injected a bit of energy.

From the front three of Bela, Hogan and Sanchez, give us some fluidity and rotation. Why not switch flanks from time to time and give defenders something different to think about? Perhaps get a few quality crosses in from the byline for a change.

However, even with nothing to lose from being positive, AK will of course revert to type. Expect to see:

- 5-4-1, with no more than three accurate passes before the ball hits the side hoardings
- After 50 minutes, every pass becomes an aimless long ball up toward Scotty Hogan
- No subs unless somebody fancies getting sent off or dies
- An 87th minute Luton winner following a Dean & Pedersen cock up

Hope I'm wrong!

A few observations!

If you play all 3 CMs in a 433 as attacking / pressing (instead of 2 as on sat) you have nobody covering back 4 if we lose possession high up and nobody to link play from defence to attack if we regain possession in our 3rd which in turn would lead to hoofball. It's really a 4141 which is fine. I believe we once won a trophy using that system.....

Crosses from the bye-line is something we've done reasonably well recently. Goal at Boro, pen v Cov, 1st goal on sat and Sanchez's chance the guy headed off the line all came from players attacking the byline and / or deliveries in. Agree we need to see more of it.

If Karanka picks a 541 on sat I'll eat my hat. You're slagging him off for something he hasn't done yet!

[willvbcfc]

If you play all 3 CMs in a 433 as attacking / pressing (instead of 2 as on sat) you have nobody covering back 4

I'm not saying all three CMs go marauding simultaneously from first whistle to last. "Hold and give, but do it at the right time!"

My point is that deploying San José in such a deep role that he's effectively sitting on the toes of the centre halves makes us sit into a pretty defensive low block 5-4-1 that can be very difficult to then break out of and transition quickly into attacking play.

As for crosses from the byline, Boro was a Colin overlap and Bournemouth was Gardner breaking forwards from central areas. Something tells me that if Bela & Sanchez were to have 15 minutes going on the outside of defenders, we'd create quite a few more menacing situations for opposition defences!